The ongoing tensions between Russia and the West, followed by the war between Russia and Ukraine, continue to raise a lot of concern among experts and even ordinary people. A lot of voices on the internet raise the hypothesis of a nuclear war, considering that both Russia and NATO have nuclear weapons. Russia is the main nuclear superpower in the world, while countries such as France, the UK, the USA, and others also have the atomic bomb in their arsenal.
Unfortunately, a scenario of a nuclear war igniting in the near future seems like a pretty feasible scenario at first glance. But we have some solid arguments that the scenario is actually very farfetched, and we’ll gladly expose those reasons below:
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD):
The concept of MAD suggests a highly plausible scenario in which nuclear-armed nations refrain from starting a nuclear conflict because of the certainty that such an act would cause the total annihilation of both parties getting involved. In other words, it should not be in any nation’s interest to start or encourage a nuclear war, as such an act would even lead to the annihilation of civilization. Those few people who would survive a nuclear war would need to head back to the Stone Age. That’s because the infrastructure would most likely be destroyed while those people who have any idea how a computer or smartphone works could also be gone. In such a scenario, it’s obvious that nobody wins. Say what you want about Putin, Zelensky, or any other political leader of a major country, but surely all of them know very well that a nuclear war is something highly undesirable.
Economic interdependence:
Let’s also not forget that in today’s globalized world, nations are economically interdependent. You don’t need to be the reincarnation of Einstein to realize that a nuclear conflict would easily devastate not only the involved parties but also inflict severe economic repercussions at a global scale, dissuading rational actors from engaging in such actions.
International diplomacy and treaties:
There are various international agreements and treaties, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), and others, that have the role of preventing the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons by the nations. Such agreements establish norms and mechanisms for peaceful solutions and dialogue, reducing the likelihood of nuclear confrontations.
Advancements in conflict resolution:
There have been some major advancements when it comes to conflict resolution mechanisms and diplomatic channels. This provides nations with alternative means to handle disputes and tensions without the need to resort to violent measures. As a result, the need for warfare goes down drastically.
Strategic stability:
Nuclear-armed states prefer to maintain a delicate balance of power to make sure that strategic stability takes place. Those states understand that the use of nuclear weapons could cause unpredictable and catastrophic consequences, which means that diplomatic solutions become mandatory.
It’s true that the risk of nuclear conflict can never be completely ruled out, but the good news is that there are strong reasons to believe that the occurrence of such a military conflict in the near future is highly improbable.